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Conservation Letters

Wiley

All preprints, ranked by how well they match Conservation Letters's content profile, based on 11 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit. Older preprints may already have been published elsewhere.

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Disconnects in global discourses - the unintended consequences of marine mammal protection on small-scale fishers

Davis, K. J.; Alfaro-Shigueto, J.; Arlidge, W. N. S.; Burton, M.; Mangel, J. C.; Mills, M.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Palma Duque, J.; Romero-de-Diego, C.

2020-01-02 ecology 10.1101/2020.01.01.892422 medRxiv
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Globally, the populations of many marine mammals remain of critical concern after centuries of exploitation and hunting. However, some marine mammal populations (e.g. pinnipeds) have largely recovered from exploitation, and interactions between these species and fisheries--particularly small-scale fisheries--is once again of concern globally. The large scope and widespread scale of interactions highlights the local disconnect between two global policies: marine mammal conservation and small-scale fisheries protection. In this research, we explore these conflicting global policies by assessing the perceptions of coastal small-scale fishers in Peru and Chile regarding their interactions with pinnipeds, including the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) and South American fur seal (Arctocephalus australis). We surveyed 301 gill net fishers and assess perceptions using a best-worst scaling methodology. We find that fishers are chiefly concerned with the increase in pinniped populations, perceive that their interactions with pinnipeds have significantly increased over the past 80 years, and report pinniped-driven catch and income losses [≥] 26 per cent. Surprisingly, fishers do not believe that compensation schemes will resolve this issue--instead they overwhelmingly call for pinniped population culls. The reported number of pinnipeds illegally killed by fishers suggests the potential for large negative impacts on these protected species, and a loss of legitimacy in marine regulation. Collectively, our results portray a sense of marginalisation from fishers--that global policy treats them as less "important" than marine mammals. Our results highlight the increasing disconnect in global policy, which on one hand seeks to protect threatened marine mammal populations, and on the other seeks to promote the welfare of small-scale fishers.

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Lessons from local ecological knowledge: cumulative stressors and governance constraints in Spanish clam fisheries

Baeta, M.; Benestan, L. M.; Solis, M. A.; Madrones, M.; Delgado, M.; Silva, L.; Rodilla Alama, M.; Falco Giaccaglia, S. L.; Ballesteros Vazquez, M.; Hampel, M.; Rico, C.

2026-02-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.02.08.704719 medRxiv
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Spanish clam fisheries have contracted sharply over the past two decades, with repeated closures and declining landings affecting coastal livelihoods. Using local ecological knowledge (LEK), we examine how fishers, fishers guild leaders and regional managers interpret (i) ecological change and (ii) the institutional conditions shaping management outcomes in Spains main clam fisheries, focusing on wedge clam (Donax trunculus), striped venus clam (Chamelea gallina) and smooth clam (Callista chione). We conducted 94 semi-structured interviews (April 2024-August 2025) across the Spanish Mediterranean and the south Atlantic coast (Catalonia, Valencian Community, Balearic Islands, Murcia and Andalusia). Stakeholders characterised declines as a cumulative process driven by interacting stressors: climate variability and extremes, coastal habitat alteration, pollution, episodic disease events and fishing pressure intensified by illegal extraction and informal marketing. Governance assessments were predominantly negative, emphasising fragmented authority across administrative scales, delayed or reactive measures, uneven rules among gears exploiting shared stocks, limited user influence in decision-making, and chronic monitoring and enforcement gaps, especially for shore-based fisheries operating outside port-based control points. Overall, LEK closely aligns with scientific evidence on cumulative stressors, suggesting that persistent declines reflect less a lack of ecological understanding than institutional constraints that hinder timely, legitimate and enforceable responses. Policy priorities include climate-adaptive harvest rules linked to environmental indicators, co-produced monitoring, strengthened traceability and compliance, harmonised rules across gears and management units, and improved cross-sector coordination to reduce conflict and safeguard nearshore habitats. HighlightsO_LIStakeholders across Spain describe clam declines as the outcome of interacting ecological, climatic, and governance stressors rather than as the consequence of isolated drivers. C_LIO_LIPerceived drivers differ regionally: climate- and habitat-related pressures dominate the Mediterranean, while effort, illegal fishing, and market dynamics are more salient in the Gulf of Cadiz. C_LIO_LIMost interviewees view management and governance as ineffective, citing fragmented authority, uneven rules among gears and regions, and weak enforcement. C_LIO_LIInformal practices (off-auction sales and poaching) are repeatedly identified as mechanisms undermining legitimacy, traceability, and effort controls--particularly in nearshore wedge clam fisheries. C_LIO_LIPolicy pathways include harmonising cross-scale rules, strengthening monitoring and compliance, and institutionalising co-management that integrates LEK with science. C_LI

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Groundfish with diverse life histories increase in size and abundance with proximity to spatial protections

Wilson, K. L.; Frid, A.; Anderson, S. C.

2025-12-01 ecology 10.1101/2025.11.28.691246 medRxiv
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Spatial protections that exclude fisheries have long been used to manage and conserve marine species. Detecting the benefits of protected areas for fish within them and for adjacent fisheries (via spillover effects) is key to informing fisheries management yet also difficult. We leveraged an extensive dataset collected over 18 years by an alliance of four Indigenous Nations in Pacific Canada. Our analyses of those data quantified the benefits of spatial fishery closures, known as Rockfish Conservation Areas (RCAs), on 28 species of groundfish occupying a wide range of distances from RCAs (inside RCAs to {approx}150 km away). On average, body sizes and relative abundance increased by 1.1% and 11.0%, respectively, per 5 km-increase in RCA proximity. Variation around these average responses depended on the species life history characteristics, RCA location, and historical impacts from commercial fishing. Additionally, the benefits of spatial protection increased with time since RCA implementation.

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The Global Environment Facility approach for allocating biodiversity funding to countries

Mcowen, C.; Burgess, N. D.; Ash, N.; Baquero, A.; Fonseca, G.; Harfoot, M.; Hilton-Taylor, C.; Kapos, V.; Ravilious, C.; Sayor, C.; Tallowin, O.; Sabita Teelucksingh, S.; Weatherdon, L.; Wyatt, S.

2022-12-12 ecology 10.1101/2022.12.07.519459 medRxiv
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Biodiversity is not evenly distributed across the globe and some areas have greater potential to contribute to biodiversity conservation than others. Whilst there are multiple ways to determine priority areas for conservation, for a global institution like the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the funding mechanism for the Convention on Biological Diversity and the largest multilateral source of funding for developing countries focused on enhancing biodiversity outcomes and promoting sustainable use, it is important to fund the top-ranked countries whilst also ensuring that all eligible countries are able to undertake some biodiversity conservation actions in accordance with the Convention. To this end, the GEF uses the System for Transparent Allocation of Resources (STAR) to allocate funding in separate funding rounds to eligible countries. This country focus means that all prioritization analyses need to be undertaken within that political framework, while also considering the intrinsic patterns in biodiversity that dont respect national borders. We present the 2018 update of the biodiversity component of GEF-STAR, investigate how the weighting system affects the ranking of countries. We show that top ranked and bottom ranked countries are robust to changes in the weighting of analytical elements, but the weighting can significantly alter the importance of middle ranking countries, affecting their funding allocation. This analysis has been used by the GEF, along with other data, to allocate over $1 billion in biodiversity funding (GEF-7 = $1.2 billion) to improve country and global prospects for conservation. However, this large funding allocation for conservation needs to be set against the vastly larger funding flows that decrease natural values around the world, and the need for systems level change remains evident across the entire planet.

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Global gaps and priorities for shark and ray conservation: Integrating threat, function, and evolutionary distinctiveness

Mouton, T. L.; Silvestro, D.; Kocakova, K.; Spitznagel, D.; Leprieur, F.; Pimiento, C.

2025-11-29 ecology 10.1101/2025.11.28.691085 medRxiv
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Elasmobranchs (sharks, rays, and skates) face unprecedented extinction risk, with over one-third of species threatened primarily by overfishing. While marine protected areas (MPAs) are essential tools to help safeguard marine ecosystems and the species that inhabit them, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how well elasmobranchs are protected globally. Here, we (1) evaluate the current level of protection for elasmobranchs, (2) employ CAPTAIN reinforcement learning algorithm to identify areas that optimise conservation based on species level of threat and their functional and evolutionary distinctiveness, and (3) examine conservation conflicts and opportunities by identifying areas where conservation priorities overlap with high and low fishing pressures. Our analysis revealed severe protection deficits, with elasmobranchs having on average only 3% of their range covered by no-take MPAs and 64% of species under-represented relative to random expectations. Areas that optimise conservation priorities consistently converged in Australian, Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Africa, European Atlantic coasts, the Caribbean, and South American Atlantic regions. However, areas of highest conservation priority often coincided with intensive fishing, particularly in East Asian seas, highlighting conservation conflicts requiring strategic management. Our results provide actionable insights for policymakers to optimise conservation strategies and maximise biodiversity retention. TeaserReinforcement learning identifies priority areas to expand ocean protection for unique and irreplaceable elasmobranchs.

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Post-2020 Kunming 30% target can easily protect all endemic sharks and rays in the Western Indian Ocean and more

Cheok, J.; Jabado, R. W.; Ebert, D. A.; Dulvy, N. K.

2021-03-09 ecology 10.1101/2021.03.08.434293 medRxiv
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Sharks and rays are possibly the most threatened Class of marine fishes and their declines can be halted if protected areas are optimised to benefit these species. We identify spatial priorities for all 63 endemic sharks and rays in the marine biodiversity hotspot, the Western Indian Ocean (WIO). Collectively, while the WIO nations currently surpass the 10% Aichi ocean protection target, this amounts to a dismal protection of only 1.57% of each species distribution range. We show that the entire ranges of all endemics can be achieved by protecting 11% of EEZs of WIO nations, well within reach of the new 30% of oceans by 2030 target. Regional management bodies exist, which if taken advantage of to implement shark and ray management, provide opportunities to implement more efficient management across the region. We recommend key management actions to implement and explicit incentivisation of international cooperation in the post-2020 biodiversity framework. Science for SocietyThe past decade has seen massive growth in the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs), driven by the Aichi biodiversity target of protecting 10% of all ocean areas. This expansion of MPAs, however, has largely occurred in areas residual to extractive uses, often coinciding with less threatened areas of lower conservation value. This coming decade will see a further push to ensure 30% of the oceans are protected by 2030. It is important to understand how existing and future MPAs should be placed to benefit threatened biodiversity. Currently this is unclear for sharks and rays, comprising a species group that is the most evolutionarily distinct vertebrate radiation in the world and also one of the most threatened. We identify both regional and national conservation priorities for expanding marine protected areas to benefit all 63 endemic sharks and rays occurring in the Western Indian Ocean region. We find that the region has already exceeded the 10% ocean protection target, but this amounts to an average of only 1.57% protection of the distribution ranges of these species. We show that protecting the top 10% priority sites will conserve almost half of the geographic range of each species yet require only 1.16% of the total EEZ - a tiny fraction of the 30% by 2030 target. We also show that regional collaboration among all nations can result in more spatially efficient conservation priorities. We recommend that the post-2020 biodiversity framework needs to explicitly incentivise regional cooperation between nations to efficiently achieve urgent targets and maximise benefits to biodiversity.

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Governing the decline: clam fisheries and the challenges of decentralized management across the western Mediterranean and Gulf of Cadiz (Spain).

Baeta, M.; Benestan, L. M.; Madrones, M.; Delgado, M.; Silva, L.; Alama, M. R.; Giaccaglia, S. L. F.; Vazquez, M. B.; Hampel, M.; Rico, C.

2025-12-05 ecology 10.64898/2025.12.03.692034 medRxiv
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Over the past four decades, clam fisheries along Spains Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts have exhibited significantly different ecological and governance trajectories. This study synthesises long-term landing data from 1993 to 2024 with a systematic review of regional legislation to explore how management frameworks influence the resilience of fisheries. In the northwest Mediterranean, which includes Catalonia, the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands, and Murcia, fisheries have experienced synchronous declines, a consequence of overexploitation, fragmented governance, and reactive, top-down regulation. In contrast, Andalusia, encompassing both the Atlantic and Alboran Sea coasts, has demonstrated more resilient trajectories, bolstered by greater ecological productivity and the adoption of adaptive governance strategies since the 2010s. In this region, the implementation of gear-specific management plans, rigorous scientific monitoring (including satellite tracking), and prompt administrative responses have facilitated more sustainable exploitation. Our findings highlight the necessity of aligning governance with ecological connectivity and integrating adaptive co-governance structures that engage fishers to safeguard the future of small-scale fisheries. More broadly, this research emphasises the need for coordinated superregional or national management frameworks that incorporate ecological knowledge, promote stakeholder participation, and allow for timely regulatory adaptation.

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Improved management facilitates return of an iconic fish species

MacKenzie, B. R.; Aarestrup, K.; Birnie-Gauvin, K.; Cardinale, M.; Christoffersen, M.; Lund, H. S.; Onandia, I.; Quilez-Badia, G.; Payne, M. R.; Sundelof, A.; Sorensen, C.; Casini, M.

2022-01-05 ecology 10.1101/197780 medRxiv
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Species declines and losses of biota are often associated with shifting baselines in perceived historical abundances, and/or neglect or abandonment of recovery actions aimed at ecological restoration. Such declines are frequently accompanied by contractions in the geographical distribution of the species, with associated negative ecological impacts and diminishing socio-economic benefits. Here we show using citizen science and other data that after 50-60 years of near total absence, the iconic top predator and highly migratory species bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, returned by the hundreds if not thousands in waters near Denmark, Norway and Sweden during August-October 2015-2017. The re-utilisation of this former habitat is part of a geographically more widespread expansion of the summer foraging area to the northern part of the northeast Atlantic Ocean, encompassing waters from east Greenland to west Sweden. The remarkable return to the Skagerrak, Kattegat and North Sea has been facilitated by improved fishery management for bluefin tuna and its prey. Bluefin tuna biomass in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean has been increasing since a recovery plan was implemented in the late 2000s, and biomasses of two key prey species (herring, Clupea harengus; mackerel, Scomber scombrus) recovered during the late 1980s-1990s. The reappearance of bluefin tuna in the Skagerrak-Kattegat and other waters of northern Europe, despite a recent history of mismanagement and illegal fishing in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean which led to a critical population decline, offers hope that other marine ecological recoveries are possible under improved management of fisheries and ecosystems. One Sentence SummaryImproved management promotes the return of an ocean icon to northern Europe. Significance StatementCommercial fisheries are often perceived being in a state of decline and collapse, putting food and economic security at risk. Such declines are frequently accompanied by contractions in stock distribution, negative ecological impacts and diminishing socio-economic benefits. Here we present an example based on one of the worlds most valuable and iconic fish species, bluefin tuna, which demonstrates that effective management of both bluefin tuna and its prey has been a key factor leading to a remarkable reoccupation of formerly lost habitat. This reappearance, following decades of absence, occurred despite the bluefin tuna stock having had a recent, long history of unsustainable and illegal exploitation. Marine ecological recovery actions can be successful, even in situations which may initially appear intractable.

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The demand for wildlife not protected by the CITES multilateral treaty

Watters, F.; Stringham, O.; Shepherd, C.; Cassey, P.

2022-03-04 ecology 10.1101/2022.03.03.482781 medRxiv
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The international wildlife trade presents severe conservation and environmental security risks. However, no international regulatory framework exists to monitor the trade of species not listed in the appendices of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). We explored the composition and dynamics of internationally regulated versus non-regulated trade, focussing on importations of wild-caught terrestrial vertebrates entering the United States of America (US) from 2009-2018. The prominence of the US in global wildlife imports and its detailed data collection conventions allows a unique opportunity to formally assess this substantial but often overlooked and understudied component of the legal wildlife trade. We found 3.6 times the number of unlisted species in US imports compared with CITES-listed species (1,366 versus 378). CITES-listed species were more likely to face reported conservation threats relative to the unlisted species (71.7% vs 27.5%). Yet, we found 376 unlisted species facing conversation threats, 297 species with unknown population trends and 139 species without an evaluation by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Unlisted species appeared novelly in imports at 5.5 times higher rates relative to CITES-listed species, where unlisted reptiles saw the largest rate of entry, averaging 53 unique species appearing in imports for the first time per year. Overall trade volumes were substantially larger for unlisted imports with approximately 11 times the number of animals relative to CITES-listed imports, however, import volumes were similar when compared at a species-by-species level. We found that the countries that were top exporters for CITES-listed shipments were mostly different from exporters of unlisted species. In highlighting the vulnerabilities of the wild-caught unlisted vertebrate trade entering the US and in the face of increasing global demand, we recommend governments adapt policies to monitor the trade of all wildlife.

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A quantitative risk assessment approach for longline fishing gear impacts on seafloor habitats

Doherty, B.; Lacko, L.; Kronlund, A. R.; Cox, S. P.

2025-09-18 ecology 10.1101/2025.09.15.676354 medRxiv
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Bottom longline fishing gear used worldwide to capture fish and invertebrate species can impact seafloor habitats, leading to increased use of spatial closures (e.g., MPAs) in areas where habitat risks are considered high. However, such closures often rely on limited data, because fishing impacts on habitat are rarely quantified and fine-scale habitat maps are often unavailable. In this paper we develop fine-scale species distribution models for coral and sponge habitats and demonstrate a quantitative risk assessment framework for habitat impacts from bottom longline trap and hook fisheries, using the British Columbia Sablefish fishery as a case study. We estimate a 4% (95%CI: 2-7%) reduction in coastwide sponge habitats due to Sablefish fishing from 1965 to 2024, compared to pre-fishery levels. Habitat status at finer spatial scales of 1 km2 shows similar trends to the coastwide aggregate status, with habitat declines less than 10% for 99% of fishing grounds. Our analysis provides fine-scale information on habitat distribution and the impacts from Sablefish longline trap and hook fishing gear, providing key information for conservation planning and fisheries management. Our risk assessment approach provides quantitative metrics (relative benthic status) for ecosystem objectives focused on fishery impacts on habitat. Such habitat metrics can be incorporated into fisheries management strategy evaluation, allowing resource managers to compare performance of alternative strategies against a broader suite of sustainability objectives that include habitat, fish stocks, and fisheries catch.

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Delivering on Biden's 2030 conservation commitment

Simmons, B. A.; Nolte, C.; McGowan, J.

2021-03-01 ecology 10.1101/2021.02.28.433244 medRxiv
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On January 27, 2021, President Biden signed an executive order, Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad, committing the United States to various goals within his campaigns major climate policy, the Biden Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. Included in this executive order is a commitment to "conserving at least 30 percent of [the United States] lands and oceans by 2030." This ambitious conservation target signals a promising direction for biodiversity in the United States. However, while the executive order outlines several goals for climate mitigation, the 30x30 target remains vague in its objectives, actions, and implementation strategies for protecting biodiversity. Biodiversity urgently needs effective conservation action, but it remains unclear where and what this 30% target will be applied to. Achieving different climate and biodiversity objectives will require different strategies and, in combination with the associated costs of implementation, will lead to different priority areas for conservation actions. Here, we illustrate what the 30% target could look like across four objectives reflective of the ambitious goals outlined in the executive order. We compile several variations of terrestrial protected area networks guided by these different objectives and examine the trade-offs in costs, ecosystem representation, and climate mitigation potential between each. We find little congruence in priority areas across objectives, emphasizing just how crucial it will be for the Biden administration to develop clear objectives and establish appropriate performance metrics from the outset to maximize both conservation and climate outcomes in support of the 30x30 target. We discuss important considerations that must guide the administrations conservation strategies in order to ensure meaningful conservation outcomes can be achieved over the next decade.

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Evaluating the likelihood for areas important for conservation to be recognized as Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures

Cook, C.; Rao, M.; Clyne, P.; Rathbone, V.; Grantham, H.

2024-02-08 ecology 10.1101/2024.02.05.579011 medRxiv
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Other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) have expanded area-based conservation to recognize sites that deliver effective biodiversity outcomes even if not managed for conservation. Yet our ability to identify sites likely to qualify as OECMs remains limited. To address this gap, we established and tested a set of indicators to judge whether sites meet the essential criteria to be considered OECMs, evaluating a large, global sample of 173 important conservation areas: 81 potential OECMs and 92 nearby protected areas. We found that most potential OECMs were largely in good condition with the potential to achieve conservation outcomes, but none currently met all the OECM criteria. Formally designated protected areas in our dataset performed better but the majority also failed the criteria. With so many important conservation areas unable to deliver effective conservation outcomes, our findings raise important questions about how to ensure area-based conservation promotes positive and sustained outcomes for biodiversity.

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Integrating migratory marine connectivity into shark conservation

Feitosa Bezerra, D.; Bentley, L.; Dwyer, R.; Nisthar, D.; Richardson, A. J.; Simpfendorfer, C.; Heupel, M.; Rohner, C.; Pierce, S.; Dunn, D.

2025-10-27 ecology 10.1101/2025.10.27.684680 medRxiv
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Understanding migratory connectivity is important for the conservation of highly mobile marine species that face escalating threats across the globe. Establishing baseline information on migratory connectivity is therefore needed to identify regions of conservation focus. Despite efforts to track migratory sharks and rays, information on transboundary movements is limited and often inaccessible to managers and policymakers. Here, we synthesised multimethod movement data for migratory Australian shark and ray species, investigating which species require international engagement to support their population recovery. Based on data from a systematic literature review, we built connectivity networks from telemetry and mark-recapture studies that provide a first baseline for transboundary migratory connectivity for Australian sharks and rays. Of the 31 shark and ray species reviewed, we identified 6 species that link the Australian Exclusive Economic Zone to other national jurisdictions via multispecies migratory connections through the Tasman Sea to New Zealand, through the Tasman and Coral Sea to New Caledonia, and north across the Timor Sea and Torres Strait to Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. White sharks (Carcharhinus carcharias) and whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) were the most data rich, whereas 14 shark and ray species had no movement information. There is a grave deficiency in available information for endangered or critically endangered migratory shark and ray populations, with 76% having only one or no published studies. This work supports future conservation strategies for migratory sharks that require robust international collaboration and the adoption of integrated and dynamic management approaches.

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The impacts of contemporary logging after 250 years of deforestation and degradation on forest-dependent threatened species

Ward, M.; Ashman, K.; Lindenmayer, D.; Legge, S.; Kindler, G.; Cadman, T.; Fletcher, R.; Whiterod, N.; Lintermans, M.; Zylstra, P.; Stewart, R.; Thomas, H.; Blanch, S.; Watson, J.

2023-02-23 ecology 10.1101/2023.02.22.529603 medRxiv
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Despite the importance of safeguarding forests and woodlands for achieving global climate and biodiversity agendas, logging continues across most forested countries. Forestry advocates often claim logging has minimal impacts, but rarely consider the cumulative threat deforestation and degradation has had, and continue to have, on species. Using New South Wales (Australia) as a case study, we quantify the extent of deforestation and degradation from 1750 - current. Using these estimates of overall loss as a baseline, we then quantify the relative extent of contemporary (2000 - 2022) logging and the condition of the remaining native forest and woodland (quantified by measuring the similarity of a current ecosystem to a historical reference state with high ecological integrity). Using these data, we measure the impacts on distinct vegetation types and on 484 terrestrial forest-dependent now-threatened species. We show that more than half (29 million ha) of pre-1750 (pre-European colonization of Australia) native forest and woodland vegetation in NSW has been lost. Of the remaining 25 million ha, 9 million ha is degraded. We found contemporary degradation from logging affected 244 forest-dependent now-threatened species that had already been affected by this historical deforestation and degradation, but the impacts varied across species and vegetation types. We found that 70 now-threatened species that were impacted by historical deforestation and degradation and continue to be impacted by logging, now have [&le;]50% of their pre-1750 extent remaining that is intact (with three species now having <20%). By quantifying the historical impacts of deforestation and degradation, our research sets the impact of contemporary degradation from logging in perspective and highlights shortfalls in current environmental assessments that fail to consider appropriate baselines when reporting on overall impact. Future land management decisions need to consider not only the extent of remaining habitat based on pre-1750 extents, but also its condition. Article impact statementThe impact of logging needs to be placed in perspective by considering past losses and degradation due to human land use decisions.

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Costs and economic impacts of expanding marine protected area systems to 30% coverage

Waldron, A.; Heneghan, R.; Steenbeek, J.; Coll, M.; Scherrer, K. J.

2022-11-22 ecology 10.1101/2022.11.20.517276 medRxiv
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International proposals for marine biodiversity seek to expand marine protected area (MPA) coverage from 8% to 30%, known as 30x30. Quadrupling MPA coverage implies considerably higher MPA system costs and governments need early knowledge of these to inform debate. Ambitious MPA expansion also implies large potential losses or "opportunity costs" for fishers, putting pressure on governments to compromise and permit some fishing inside protected areas (a mixed high/low protection system). Crafting a balanced compromise needs to be informed by model projections of future fisheries outcomes under different protection regimes, climate change scenarios and behavioural adaptations. Here, we develop the first models for management costs at national MPA-system scale. We create scenarios of 30x30 at different compromises around protection strictness. We then examine how both MPA costs and opportunity costs vary with strictness, by simultaneously applying our management cost models and two Marine Ecosystem Models. We find that a no-take (high protection) MPA system could cost just $2 billion/year for the developing world and ~$8 billion overall, but would also create opportunity costs several times larger. A compromise mix of high and medium protection would have much higher MPA costs (e.g. $4.5 billion for the developing world) but much lower opportunity costs, to the point of fisheries actually benefiting in the future. Since lower protection also compromises on biodiversity goals, our results show the trade-offs that political decisions need to consider beyond COP15. More generally, the unusually large opportunity costs show how marine contexts generate very different economic issues from terrestrial ones, by attempting to protect a common pool resource area that envisages no automatic market compensation for income lost to conservation.

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Degradation of visible autumn icons and conservation opportunities: trends in deciduous forest loss in the contiguous US

Dreiss, L. M.; Malcom, J. W.

2021-03-29 ecology 10.1101/2021.03.29.437570 medRxiv
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Temperate deciduous forests are one of the most visible biomes on Earth because of their autumn aesthetics and because they harbor some of the most heavily populated regions. Their ability to attract visitors may increase opportunities for people to experience nature, which has been linked to greater conservation action. Identifying regions with high leaf-peeping opportunities and regions where color has been lost to landscape conversion may help to inform these connections. We use spatial overlay analyses to quantify temperate deciduous forest coverage, disturbance, and protections in each U.S. ecoregion. We evaluated recent (1984-2016) and predicted (2016-2050) disturbance under extreme future scenarios. Almost all ecoregions saw a decline in deciduous forest cover between 1985 and 2016. Some ecoregions with the greatest opportunities for leaf-peeping are also underrepresented in the protected areas network and vulnerable to additional losses. Under economic-growth forecasting scenarios, losses are predicted to continue. However, environmentally focused scenarios suggest there is still opportunity to reverse deciduous forest loss in some ecoregions. Differences in forest loss between predictions scenarios emphasize the importance of human approaches in securing environmental stability. Increasing public exposure to temperate forests may help ensure conservation of more natural areas and preserve the quantity and quality of autumn forest viewing. Key PointsO_LITemperate deciduous forests aesthetics attract visitors to experience nature, but degradation and loss can hinder connections. C_LIO_LIUS ecoregions with the greatest leaf-peeping opportunities are underrepresented in the protected areas and vulnerable to additional losses. C_LIO_LIDifferences in predictions scenarios emphasize the importance of conservation action, which may be linked to human connections with nature. C_LI

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Changing variability is an overlooked aspect of protected area planning

Marcus, R.; Noonan, M. J.

2023-10-29 ecology 10.1101/2023.10.26.564062 medRxiv
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Protected areas are widely used management tools designed to support the long-term conservation of biodiversity. The effectiveness of protected areas is being challenged by human-induced climate change, however, which is causing three broad shifts away from the current distribution of climate trends: a change in mean conditions, a change in the variance around the mean, and/or a change in symmetry. Though changes in average conditions are certainly important, the second behaviour, a change in variance, brings a unique set of challenges that species must respond to. As conditions become more variable, phenological events become less predictable, extreme weather events become more frequent, food security and ecosystem stability are compromised, and extinction risk increases. It therefore stands to reason that changes in the variance of local conditions should be a core consideration when designing protected areas. Here, we reviewed the literature to determine the extent to which changes in variance are being incorporated into protected area planning. Worryingly, we found that fewer than a quarter of the 100 studies we surveyed formally considered how climate change might change mean conditions, and only four considered climate change-induced changes in the variance around the mean. Our evaluation reveals an alarming gap in protected area research. The majority of researchers continue to make recommendations for protected areas without acknowledging that the area(s) they are recommending for protection may have markedly different conditions in the future. Whether variability is considered or not, stochastic events represent a serious threat to the persistence of species and complex ecosystems. Effective conservation requires actively considering how the stability of conditions within protected areas will be impacted by future climate change. As global climate patterns tend towards increasing unpredictability, protecting less variable habitat should be a priority to ensure local populations are not exposed to elevated extinction risk.

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Marine predator spatial conservation priorities are taxon-specific

Boyse, E.; Goodman, S. J.; Beger, M.

2023-03-02 ecology 10.1101/2023.03.02.530743 medRxiv
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Marine predators are globally threatened by anthropogenic stressors, but are key for ecosystem functioning. Their worsening conservation statuses indicate that current management is failing, requiring us to urgently reimagine their conservation needs to ensure their survival. Their life histories, threats, and resource needs are diverse. Consequently, spatial conservation areas targeting all species will overlook such heterogeneity, contributing to the problem. Here, we demonstrate that marine mammals, elasmobranchs and teleost fishes return drastically different spatial conservation priority areas, based on Marxan scenarios for 42 marine predator species in the Mediterranean Sea. None of the marine predators are sufficiently covered by the current marine protected area (MPA) system, with marine mammals being the least protected despite having the greatest designated MPA extent, highlighting disconnects between conservation goals and current management outcomes. To save marine predators, taxon specific ecological requirements and resulting spatial heterogeneity need to be accounted for in marine spatial planning.

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Sharks, Rays, & MPAs: Evaluating protected area coverage in national waters across species ranges

Arnold, A. E.; Matsushiba, J. H.; Dulvy, N. K.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712493 medRxiv
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13.6%
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Global conservation agreements emphasize protected area coverage targets, such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Frameworks 30x30 target, yet their effectiveness in safeguarding biodiversity remains uncertain. We measure the intersection between marine protected area (MPAs) coverage and the distribution of sharks and rays. Using global range maps and MPA boundaries within national Exclusive Economic Zones, we calculate the percent of species ranges within MPAs, focusing on no-take areas. We reveal significant shortfalls in species-level protection. Within national waters, no Critically Endangered species has more than 5% of its range in no-take MPAs, and 79% of threatened species have less than 1%. We also find the WDPA contains major gaps in take-status reporting, only one third of countries (34%) report take-status of any MPAs to the WDPA, further limiting estimates of meaningful protection. These results highlight the implementation gap between global coverage targets and biodiversity outcomes, reinforcing the need for species-focused protection.

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Mapping the risks of China's global coastal development to marine socio-ecological systems

Simmons, B. A.; Butt, N.; O'Hara, C. C.; Ray, R.; Ma, Y.; Gallagher, K. P.

2022-04-25 ecology 10.1101/2022.04.22.489174 medRxiv
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12.8%
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Rapid coastal development continues to jeopardize the integrity of marine socio-ecological systems. China is now the largest bilateral creditor in the world, committing nearly half a trillion US dollars to overseas development finance since 2008. Meanwhile, there are growing concerns over the impacts of this boom in Chinese development finance on marine systems. Here, we quantify the risks of coastal development projects financed by China to marine biodiversity and coastal Indigenous communities. Ports present the greatest impact risks to marine systems, in terms of both magnitude and area at risk, with power plants, roads, and other facilities presenting relatively high localized risks. Risks are most prominent in Africa and the Caribbean, with coastal Indigenous communities in Western and Central Africa particularly vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of development. All projects present some risk to threatened marine species and potential critical habitats, but few present high risks to nearby marine protected areas. Most projects present additional risks to ecosystems that are already under increasing human pressures, but some are likely to introduce new risks to relatively intact ecosystems. "Bluing" future coastal development projects in Chinas overseas development finance portfolio will require more social and environmental safeguards, higher standards for host-country impact assessments, and greater integration of land-sea risk mitigation and management approaches.